The Quest Trend Magazine has recently published an analysis that evaluates the course of production and sales of the German machinery industry in the first half-year and provides the outlook that can be expected.
The analysis arranges the new half-year data from the Federal Statistical Office in the six-year-lasting period since the world economic crisis 2008/2009 instead to compare them with the previous year or quarter as it is common approach. Trend lines in the diagrams illustrate the essentials in the course of production and sales.
After the crisis 2010 was the catching up year for the machinery industry: production of machines rapidly climbed up from the crisis low of 71.5 index points and achieved almost the pre-crisis level at the end of 2010.
However, production did not continued to grow; in fact, it suddenly dropped at the beginning of 2011. Since then this up and down shapes the course of production and sales neither showing a growth trend nor a crisis-laden downtrend. Rather production and sales have been moving since 2011 in a large sideways range below the pre-crisis level and above the crisis low.
That is also true for the first half-year 2014.
This phase of stagnation within a larger range of fluctuations becomes understandable with view of the export markets of the German machinery industry:
Also the worldwide industrial production could not exceed the pre-crisis level in a stable manner. Important countries for the machine exports show a mixed development. Germany and the USA have recently exceeded their pre-crisis level, and China, Mexico, Indonesia, Turkey, South Korea have clearly overcome theirs; Russia, Brazil, India are stagnating; finally the countries of the European Union are still noticeably distant from their pre-crisis levels.
The Quest Trend Magazine specifies the outlook for production and sales of the German machinery industry.
The phase of stagnation that has been continuing for three and a half years would only be positively completed if production would lastingly grow over the pre-crisis level. The stagnation would negatively change to a renewed crisis, if the crisis low would again be achieved or fallen below.
Currently it is probable that the phase of stagnation will continue. Partly positive tendencies are hampered by increasing protectionism in the export markets of the German machinery industry. Increasing political tensions like the Ukraine crisis are also based on the predominantly stagnating world economy.
Further analyses in the Quest Trend Magazine highlight the shift in the export markets of the German machinery industry and its highly concentrated export structure.